According to WPB, Saudi Arabia has sharply increased crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz after the disruption to its East–West Pipeline restricted shipments from Yanbu, pushing the kingdom’s total exports back above 4 million barrels per day in September. The shift provides the clearest evidence yet that Saudi Arabia is using the Gulf route to recover part of the export capacity lost on the Red Sea side.
Provisional tracking data show Saudi exports at just over 4 million bpd so far this month, up from around 2.4 million bpd in August. That represents a recovery of roughly two-thirds in less than a month after August volumes fell to their lowest level in more than a decade.
The more striking change is where those barrels are moving. Saudi oil passing through Hormuz averaged approximately 2.9 million bpd over the latest six-day period, compared with only around 700,000 bpd in August.
In practical terms, Saudi flows through the strait have more than quadrupled. The additional roughly 2.2 million bpd is helping compensate for the loss of flexibility at Yanbu following damage to the East–West Pipeline and the resulting reduction in Red Sea exports.
Independent tanker data add weight to the shift. During the week of September 13, 13 crude tankers carrying a combined 34 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia accounting for around half of the volume and Iraq supplying roughly 35%.
This is an important distinction from earlier signs of improvement in Hormuz traffic. Recent official statements had pointed to stronger oil and LNG throughput, but the latest tracking data now show a specific and measurable increase in Saudi barrels moving through the strait.
The change also marks a reversal in the role Hormuz has played in Saudi export strategy during much of 2026. Earlier in the conflict, Saudi Arabia relied heavily on the East–West Pipeline to move crude toward Yanbu and reduce exposure to the Gulf chokepoint.
After the September attack on the pipeline, that strategy became harder to maintain. With the Red Sea route constrained, the kingdom has had to send more crude back through the very waterway it had spent months trying to bypass.
Hormuz has therefore moved from being the route Saudi Arabia was trying to reduce its dependence on to an essential part of its short-term export recovery. That does not mean the strategic importance of Yanbu has diminished; rather, the outage has exposed how difficult it is to replace several million barrels per day of pipeline capacity at short notice.
The wider Middle East picture also remains tighter than the Saudi rebound alone might suggest. Regional oil flows averaged about 17.1 million bpd over the latest 10-day period, still roughly 6.1 million bpd below the 2025 average.
Saudi Arabia has clearly recovered some lost export volume, but the regional system is not back to normal. The East–West Pipeline remains under repair, security risks persist around both Hormuz and the Red Sea, and tanker operations continue to face unusually high logistical and insurance costs.
The shift is already changing shipping patterns. Sending substantially more Saudi crude through Hormuz requires different tanker positioning, loading schedules and voyage planning than exporting those barrels from Yanbu.
This can ease one problem while creating pressure somewhere else. More Gulf loadings help compensate for the damaged pipeline, but they also concentrate additional tanker demand around Persian Gulf terminals at a time when vessel availability and war-risk exposure remain unusually sensitive.
The effect on freight therefore may not be straightforward. A functioning Hormuz route improves Saudi export capacity, but higher crude volumes through the Gulf can increase competition for large tankers and complicate scheduling before any broader reduction in freight pressure becomes visible.
For refinery feedstock buyers in Asia, however, the recovery is meaningful. More Saudi crude leaving through the Gulf improves the chances that contracted barrels can reach Asian refiners despite the loss of part of the Yanbu route.
That is particularly relevant for China, India, South Korea and Japan, where refiners have had to manage unusually volatile Middle Eastern crude flows during 2026. Greater availability of Saudi barrels through Hormuz can reduce part of that uncertainty, even if shipping costs remain high.
For the bitumen and asphalt markets, the implications are more indirect. There is currently no evidence that Saudi bitumen production or exports have increased alongside the rebound in crude shipments.
The two flows should not be treated as interchangeable. Crude oil moves in large tankers through a logistics system that differs from bulk bitumen, which requires heated storage, dedicated loading infrastructure and specialized vessels.
The more relevant effect for bitumen comes through refinery feedstock security and the wider shipping environment. Better crude access can make refinery operations more predictable, while changes in Gulf tanker demand, insurance and port congestion can influence transportation costs across the petroleum supply chain.
There is also no guarantee that stronger Saudi crude exports will immediately reduce freight pressure for bitumen cargoes. A surge in Gulf crude movements can tighten vessel positioning and raise activity around regional ports even while overall energy supply improves.
The next major test will be whether Saudi exports remain above 4 million bpd and whether Hormuz can continue handling close to 3 million bpd of Saudi flows without another major disruption. Progress on restoring the East–West Pipeline will matter just as much, because a repaired Yanbu route would once again give the kingdom two large export options instead of forcing so much volume back through the Gulf.
For now, the important development is not simply that Saudi exports have risen. It is the way they have recovered: Hormuz, previously the main vulnerability Saudi Arabia was trying to avoid, has become the route carrying much of the kingdom’s replacement export flow after the loss of capacity toward Yanbu.
By WPB
Saudi Arabia, Saudi Crude Exports, Strait of Hormuz, Yanbu, East–West Pipeline, Petroline, Crude Oil, Kpler, Tanker Flows, Middle East Oil, Saudi Aramco, Tanker Demand, Freight, Refinery Feedstock, Bitumen, Asphalt, Bitumen Logistics
