According to WPB, energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be improving, but the picture is still far from clear. The head of U.S. Central Command says oil and LNG movements through the strait over the past two weeks have reached their highest level in six months, while independent vessel-tracking data continue to show sharp day-to-day swings in traffic.
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said the main transit lanes through Hormuz had been cleared of mines and that oil and LNG flows over the previous two weeks had risen to a six-month high. He added that Gulf countries had moved more than 1 billion barrels of crude through the waterway over the past several months, with the U.S. working alongside regional governments, shipping companies and insurers to keep traffic moving.
That is an important change from the much tighter conditions seen earlier in the disruption. It suggests that mine clearance, naval protection and adjustments by commercial operators are allowing more energy cargoes to move through the strait than they were only a few weeks ago.
Still, the headline needs context. The six-month-high figure comes from CENTCOM’s assessment of energy volumes, not from a publicly available independent tanker-tracking series, and the latest visible ship-count data remain weak.
Tracking figures published on September 18 showed only four commodity vessels crossing Hormuz on September 17, compared with six on September 16 and a recent 10-day average of around 16. Three vessels were recorded entering the Gulf and one leaving it, although the count may change later because some ships operating in the area switch off their automatic identification systems.
The apparent mismatch is not necessarily a contradiction. CENTCOM is talking about the amount of oil and LNG moved over a two-week period, while the independent data count visible commodity vessels on a specific day.
Those are two very different measures. A few large tankers can carry far more energy than a larger number of smaller vessels, and ships travelling with their transponders switched off may not appear immediately in public tracking data.
There are also early signs of stronger LNG movement. Several Qatari LNG carriers have reappeared outside the strait after periods of limited visibility, although that is still too little evidence to call the recovery sustained.
The security situation also remains unsettled. Iran said it had struck the Togo-flagged tanker Trend during an attempted transit through Hormuz, underlining the fact that individual ships are still operating in a high-risk environment even if overall energy volumes are improving.
At the same time, the region’s alternative export routes are not yet fully reliable. Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, which had been carrying roughly 4–5 million barrels per day toward the Red Sea during the Hormuz disruption, is still recovering from damage to pumping infrastructure.
That matters because the recent improvement through Hormuz is taking place while other parts of the regional transport system remain constrained. In other words, the strait may be moving more energy, but Gulf logistics as a whole have not returned to normal.
If the higher throughput continues and is confirmed by independent data over the next several weeks, the impact on the physical oil market could be significant. More dependable passage through Hormuz would give Gulf producers greater export flexibility and reduce some of the need for costly alternative routing and ship-to-ship transfers.
It could also gradually reduce tanker dislocation. More predictable passage makes scheduling easier, shortens some indirect voyages and lowers the need to keep vessels tied up in temporary routing arrangements.
But it is still too early to describe the strait as normalized. Observable vessel traffic remains volatile, security risks have not disappeared, and insurance costs remain unusually high across parts of the region.
For the bitumen and asphalt market, the distinction is especially important. There is currently no evidence that higher crude and LNG throughput has led to a measurable increase in Gulf bitumen exports.
Crude oil, LNG and bitumen move through different logistics systems. Bulk bitumen requires heated storage, specialized loading facilities and dedicated vessels, so an improvement in crude traffic does not automatically create more bitumen cargoes.
The more realistic benefit for bitumen would come indirectly. Better access through Hormuz could improve refinery feedstock security, reduce uncertainty around shipping schedules and eventually ease some of the pressure on freight and insurance.
Even then, actual bitumen availability will still depend on refinery production, terminal capacity, vessel availability and confirmed loading programs. Those indicators need to improve separately before the market can speak of a genuine recovery in bitumen supply.
The next important test will be whether independent tracking data begin to move in the same direction as the higher energy-volume estimates. If both cargo volumes and visible vessel movements rise consistently, the case for a broader recovery in Hormuz traffic will become much stronger.
For now, the latest development is best read as a sign that energy throughput is improving, not that the problem has been solved. For bitumen buyers and sellers, the signal is better shipping access and potentially lower logistical risk—not yet more product in the market.
By WPB
Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz Shipping, Oil Flows, LNG, CENTCOM, Crude Oil, Tanker Traffic, Gulf Shipping, Shipping Risk, Tanker Routing, Refinery Feedstock, Bitumen, Asphalt, Bitumen Logistics, War-Risk Insurance
