WPB has published its latest Global Bitumen Market Intelligence report, presenting a detailed global bitumen market analysis for the final two weeks of September 2026.
The new WPB bitumen analysis combines political, economic and technical market intelligence with country-by-country bitumen price analysis, port-level assessments and a two-week bitumen price forecast. The report examines how security risk, refinery availability, inventories, freight, insurance, feedstock costs and infrastructure demand are creating increasingly different price conditions across Asia, the Middle East, Europe and other major bitumen markets.
The central finding is that the global bitumen market is no longer moving as one market. Physical availability, shipping execution and delivered costs are increasingly determining the real bitumen price paid by buyers, even when crude benchmarks appear softer.
Global Bitumen Market Analysis Points to Physical Tightness
One of the main findings of the latest bitumen market analysis is that physical market conditions remain tighter than headline energy prices suggest.
Reliable heavy feedstock, vessel access, insurance and loading windows have become increasingly important in determining actual bitumen availability. This means a lower crude benchmark does not automatically translate into a lower delivered bitumen price, particularly when buyers face higher logistics costs, delayed cargoes or limited replacement options.
The WPB analysis therefore places greater emphasis on delivered bitumen cost rather than refinery-origin quotations alone.
Asia Remains the Strongest Bitumen Price Market
Asia continues to show some of the strongest upward pressure in the global bitumen market.
China’s bitumen market has been supported by tightening inventories and domestic supply conditions, with front-month values moving above CNY 5,400 despite softer crude. The report finds that refinery supply, inventories and construction demand are currently more important to the China bitumen price than crude alone.
Singapore is another major focus of the WPB bitumen analysis. Singapore bitumen exports have fallen 62.5 percent year on year as feedstock shortages reduce export availability, increasing the market’s dependence on refinery operating rates and replacement cargoes.
India is also entering a more sensitive period as refinery price increases combine with stronger post-monsoon road construction demand. The report identifies procurement timing, refinery pricing and distributor inventories as key variables for the India bitumen market.
South Korea, China and Singapore remain among the markets with the strongest near-term price momentum in WPB’s latest bitumen price forecast.
Hormuz Risk Continues to Shape the Global Bitumen Market
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important political and logistical variables in the global bitumen market.
WPB’s analysis finds that the issue is no longer simply whether the Strait is technically open. The more important question for commercial bitumen trade is whether carriers, insurers, terminals and buyers can rely on a predictable transit framework.
For bitumen cargoes, narrow delivery windows and relatively tight trading margins make uncertainty particularly costly. Longer voyages, alternative origins, additional storage and higher security costs can all increase the final delivered bitumen price.
Alternative corridors through pipelines, ports and overland routes may reduce dependence on Hormuz, but WPB notes that bitumen requires specialized heated storage, temperature-controlled handling and appropriate loading infrastructure before a new route can become a reliable commercial alternative.
Freight and Insurance Are Becoming Part of the Bitumen Price
The latest global bitumen analysis also highlights the growing importance of freight and insurance.
Bunker fuel prices have risen sharply, while war-risk premiums and route uncertainty are increasing the cost of executing bitumen cargoes. As a result, buyers increasingly need to compare the full delivered bitumen price rather than relying only on FOB values.
Freight, heating, demurrage, insurance, storage, port security and financing can eliminate what initially appears to be a cheaper commodity offer.
This difference between refinery price and delivered bitumen price is expected to remain one of the most important features of the market during the next two weeks.
Europe Shows a Different Bitumen Market Structure
Europe currently presents a different market picture from Asia.
Higher refinery output in parts of Central Europe, combined with weaker demand, has created greater regional availability. However, surplus production does not automatically mean lower delivered prices because trucking, rail and coastal freight can absorb much of the apparent discount.
The WPB global bitumen market analysis therefore expects European bitumen prices to firm more slowly than Northeast Asian markets, with competition between domestic and imported supply limiting the pace of increases.
Country-by-Country Bitumen Price Analysis and Forecast
The full WPB report includes port-wise bitumen price analysis and Week 4 forecasts for major global markets, including:
Iran bitumen price
Russia bitumen price
Singapore bitumen price
China bitumen price
UAE bitumen price
Sri Lanka bitumen price
Iraq bitumen price
Turkey bitumen price
Australia bitumen price
South Korea bitumen price
India bitumen price
Malaysia bitumen price
Vietnam bitumen price
Brazil bitumen price
South Africa bitumen price
Indonesia bitumen price
Bangladesh bitumen price
Thailand bitumen price
Venezuela bitumen price
Germany bitumen price
Spain bitumen price
Italy bitumen price
The port-wise analysis compares current Week 3 assessments with the WPB Week 4 bitumen price forecast and evaluates replacement costs, volatility, logistics and regional market conditions.
For Iran, for example, WPB identifies a clear distinction between the port-delivered drum and jumbo-bag market and the lower factory-gate flexi-bag assessment. The report notes that this spread reflects not only packaging but also handling, inland transport, sanctions friction and vessel availability.
Two-Week Bitumen Price Forecast: September 24 to October 7
WPB’s two-week global bitumen market outlook covers September 24 to October 7, 2026.
The political forecast expects security risk to remain highest early in the period, while diplomacy and alternative corridors may reduce—but not eliminate—execution risk.
The economic forecast expects delivered-cost pressure to remain firm after the initial security shock, with freight, insurance, feedstock and working-capital costs continuing to affect replacement cargoes.
The price outlook is firm but increasingly differentiated. Northeast Asia is expected to retain the strongest near-term momentum, while Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East are projected to firm more gradually. Europe is expected to rise at a slower pace.
The first week of the forecast period is expected to absorb most of the immediate market shock, followed by a slower continuation in the second week rather than another synchronized price surge.
WPB Global Bitumen Market Outlook
The overall WPB bitumen market outlook is for a market that remains firm, fragmented and highly sensitive to execution risk.
Rather than a synchronized global increase, WPB expects uneven repricing across regions. Reliability itself is increasingly becoming part of the price: a nominally cheaper bitumen cargo may ultimately cost more if vessel access, loading, insurance or inland delivery is uncertain.
For buyers, traders, refiners, asphalt producers and contractors, the key indicators to monitor now include global bitumen prices, refinery utilization, inventories, vessel availability, bunker costs, freight, insurance, regional construction demand and alternative export routes.
Download the Full WPB Global Bitumen Market Analysis
The complete WPB Global Bitumen Market Intelligence report includes political analysis, economic analysis, technical market intelligence, country-by-country bitumen price assessments, Week 4 price forecasts, charts and a two-week global bitumen market outlook.
Download the full analysis here:
https://www.bitumenmag.com/uploads/topics/17906727796433.pdf
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WPB – World of Petroleum & Bitumen will continue to monitor global bitumen prices, bitumen market trends, refinery developments, freight conditions, shipping risks and regional supply-demand changes.
