According to WPB, Uzbekistan’s Fergana Oil Refinery has increased bitumen production by approximately 60% following repairs to key processing units, while the government plans to raise overall refinery capacity utilization from around 40% to 65% by the end of 2026. The development provides a direct physical supply signal for the Central Asian bitumen market because the increase reflects actual refinery output rather than a future construction project, procurement plan, or price movement.
The increase was announced as part of a broader government review of Uzbekistan’s oil and gas sector. Following repairs to the refinery’s main processing units, diesel output increased by approximately 30%, bitumen production rose by 60%, and jet fuel production increased fivefold. Authorities now plan to focus on maintaining a stable feedstock supply, improving the utilization of existing refinery capacity, and reducing the plant’s debt burden.
The 60% increase in bitumen production is the most important figure for the road binder market, but it requires careful interpretation. Uzbekistan has not disclosed the actual tonnage produced before or after the increase, meaning the percentage cannot currently be converted into a new annual bitumen production figure. The statement confirms that physical output has increased, but it does not establish the volume of additional material available to domestic buyers or regional export markets.
The same caution applies to the government’s 65% utilization target. The refinery currently operates at around 40% of its overall capacity and is expected to reach 65% utilization by the end of 2026, but that percentage refers to the refinery as a whole rather than to a dedicated bitumen unit. An increase in overall crude throughput can support higher production of several petroleum products, but it does not mean that bitumen output will automatically increase at the same rate.
Fergana Oil Refinery states that it can process up to approximately 2 million metric tons of crude oil annually. Applying the current 40% or future 65% utilization rate directly to bitumen production would therefore be incorrect because crude processing capacity and road bitumen capacity are different measures. Product yields depend on crude quality, refinery configuration, residue availability, and operating decisions across individual processing units.
The refinery’s official product portfolio nevertheless confirms that bitumen is an established commercial product. Fergana lists petroleum impregnating bitumen, construction bitumen, road construction petroleum bitumen, and viscous petroleum road bitumen among its products. Its road binders are produced under standards including GOST 22245-90 and GOST 33133-2014, while the refinery also produces asphalt oil that can be used as a feedstock for further processing or as a component in bitumen production.
This product structure makes the 60% increase directly relevant to the road construction sector. Unlike a refinery project that may eventually add bitumen to its product lineup, Fergana already manufactures commercial road binders and has now reported higher actual production following repair work. The main unanswered question is how much additional tonnage the refinery can sustain once normal operations and feedstock supply stabilize.
Recent maintenance activity supports the broader production recovery trend. In September, the refinery reported completing a major overhaul of key processing units as part of a program to restore production capacity. The work included improvements to processing and storage infrastructure, while the refinery stated that modernization would allow production volumes to increase further in stages.
A separate September update said the refinery had brought additional storage capacity online and restored or upgraded important operating units. The diesel hydrotreating unit was reported to be capable of producing up to 1,200 tons per day following the overhaul, while the refinery spent nearly UZS 55 billion of its own funds on the recent repair program. These details do not provide a bitumen tonnage figure, but they show that the reported increase occurred as part of a broader operational recovery rather than an isolated change in one product.
The next constraint is feedstock availability. The government specifically identified a stable raw material supply as a priority for increasing refinery utilization from 40% toward 65%. This matters because nominal refinery capacity cannot generate additional bitumen unless sufficient crude oil with suitable characteristics reaches the plant consistently.
Crude quality will also influence how much higher throughput translates into additional bitumen production. Road bitumen is produced from heavy refinery streams, particularly vacuum residue, and different crude grades generate different volumes and qualities of residual material. A refinery can therefore substantially increase total throughput without achieving an equivalent percentage increase in road binder production.
Internal refinery economics also play a role. Residual material can sometimes be directed toward other processing routes instead of bitumen, depending on refinery configuration, product margins, and operating requirements. Fergana’s modernization program aims to increase processing depth and improve the production of higher-quality fuels, meaning future bitumen output will depend not only on crude throughput but also on how the refinery allocates heavy streams among competing products.
The government’s current figures nevertheless indicate that repairs have already improved bitumen availability before the refinery reaches its targeted utilization level. If the plant successfully increases overall utilization from 40% to 65% while maintaining or improving its current bitumen yield, additional domestic supply could become available during the remainder of 2026 and beyond. That scenario remains plausible, but it cannot yet be quantified because neither current bitumen production volumes nor the refinery’s dedicated bitumen capacity has been disclosed.
For Uzbekistan’s domestic market, higher Fergana output could increase the volume available for road construction, asphalt production, and infrastructure maintenance. Greater local production may also give contractors more procurement flexibility by expanding the domestic supply base, particularly if refinery operations remain stable during peak paving periods.
The impact on regional trade could also become significant because Fergana is located in Central Asia and already operates as a commercial petroleum products producer rather than a refinery serving only internal needs. The refinery states that petroleum products are regularly offered through the Uzbek Commodity Exchange on FCA terms, demonstrating an established commercial sales channel. However, the latest official announcement does not disclose how much of the additional bitumen production will remain in Uzbekistan or how much may become available for export.
This distinction is critical for the CIS and Central Asian bitumen markets. A 60% increase in production does not automatically translate into a 60% increase in export availability because domestic road demand may absorb some or all of the additional material. Government infrastructure programs, seasonal paving demand, inventory policies, and domestic pricing will influence how much product reaches buyers across the border.
The current development could nevertheless change the regional supply balance if production remains elevated. Additional Uzbek output could increase competition among suppliers serving nearby Central Asian markets and reduce the need for some buyers to source replacement shipments or overland supplies from more distant origins. The extent of that impact will depend on actual sales volumes, transportation costs, and the grades made available to regional customers.
The refinery’s location also makes overland logistics particularly important. Central Asian bitumen trade relies heavily on road and rail transportation rather than marine shipping, so freight economics differ fundamentally from markets such as the Middle East or Southeast Asia. Higher refinery output can improve supply availability, but the delivered cost advantage will depend on rail access, storage tank capacity, border procedures, and inland transportation costs.
For this reason, the Fergana development should not be compared directly with an expansion in marine bitumen exports. The increase is taking place within a landlocked regional market where logistics capacity can become just as important as refinery production itself. Additional output will affect neighboring markets only if the material can be stored, allocated, and transported efficiently.
The modernization program may strengthen that capability over time. Fergana has been expanding storage capacity, automating measurement systems, and rebuilding processing units as part of its broader modernization plan. The program aims to increase processing depth, improve product quality, and utilize existing capacity more efficiently, while additional units are scheduled to come online progressively between 2026 and 2028.
However, modernization can have competing effects on bitumen production. Higher crude throughput and more reliable operations can increase the amount of residual feedstock available, but deeper conversion capacity can also allow a refinery to process more heavy residue into higher-value lighter products. Bitumen output therefore needs to be monitored directly rather than estimated solely from the refinery’s modernization efforts or crude processing targets.
The government’s 60% figure is particularly valuable because it provides direct evidence that bitumen production has already increased. The next step is to determine whether the higher output can be sustained following the repair period and whether it translates into greater market availability.
The most important indicators will be actual monthly or annual bitumen production, refinery utilization, crude feedstock supply, the grades offered through domestic sales channels, and any increase in regional exports. Prices in Uzbekistan and neighboring Central Asian markets will also help indicate whether the additional production is sufficient to change physical supply conditions.
If Fergana reaches 65% overall utilization while maintaining its improved bitumen production level, Uzbekistan could enter 2027 with a stronger domestic road binder supply position than it had before the repairs. If feedstock constraints prevent the refinery from reaching its utilization target, the current 60% increase may prove more difficult to sustain.
The available evidence therefore supports a clear but limited conclusion. Fergana has already increased physical bitumen production by 60% following repairs, making this a genuine supply-side development for Uzbekistan. However, because no actual bitumen production volume, dedicated bitumen capacity, or export allocation has been published, the eventual impact on Uzbekistan and the broader Central Asian market cannot yet be quantified in metric tons.
By WPB
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