According to WPB, Kazakhstan's three major road bitumen producers plan to reduce their combined production to 82,000 metric tons in November 2026, compared with a combined October production plan of 135,000 tons. The reduction of 53,000 tons, equivalent to approximately 39.3%, comes as colder weather and the seasonal slowdown in road construction weaken domestic demand. At the same time, reported ex-works (EXW) bitumen prices at the Pavlodar refinery and Caspi Bitum have declined, indicating growing pressure on Kazakhstan's domestic bitumen market.
The latest production plans mark a substantial adjustment following the main road construction season. However, the comparison is based on the production plans for October and November rather than actual October output. The three producers manufactured a combined 113,422 tons of road bitumen in October, meaning the November production plan is approximately 27.7% below the previous month's actual production. This distinction is important when evaluating the extent of the expected reduction in physical supply.
Caspi Bitum, one of Kazakhstan's leading road bitumen producers, plans to manufacture approximately 32,000 tons in November, compared with its October production plan of 60,000 tons. This represents a planned reduction of about 46.7%. Actual production in October reached 40,400 tons, below the original monthly target. The November plan therefore also represents a decrease from the volume the company actually produced during the previous month.
The Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant is preparing to reduce November road bitumen production to 30,000 tons, compared with the October plan of 50,000 tons. The adjustment represents a 40% reduction in planned output. The refinery produced 51,680 tons in October, slightly exceeding its original target. As a result, the planned November volume is considerably below both the refinery's October production plan and its actual output.
Qazaq Bitum is expected to produce approximately 20,000 tons in November, compared with an October production plan of 25,000 tons. The reduction amounts to 20% on a planned-output basis. The company's actual October production reached 21,342 tons, making the expected decline from realized production more moderate than the changes announced by the other two producers.
The slowdown in production has been accompanied by lower selling prices at some facilities. Road bitumen from the Pavlodar refinery is reportedly being offered at 160,000–190,000 Kazakh tenge per metric ton on an EXW basis in November, compared with 180,000–200,000 tenge per ton in October. Both ends of the reported price range have declined, reflecting weaker purchasing conditions as road construction activity slows.
Caspi Bitum has also reduced its reported EXW prices. November quotations have fallen to 160,000–165,000 tenge per metric ton, compared with 175,000–180,000 tenge in October. The decline of 15,000 tenge per ton at both ends of the range represents a substantial adjustment in the company's selling prices. The plant is also scheduled to begin planned maintenance on December 3, an operational development that may become relevant to supply conditions toward the end of the year.
In contrast, Qazaq Bitum has maintained its November selling prices at approximately 250,000–260,000 tenge per metric ton on an EXW basis, unchanged from October. The difference between its quotations and those reported for Caspi Bitum and Pavlodar illustrates the significant variation in Kazakhstan's domestic bitumen pricing. However, refinery location, feedstock costs, product specifications, transportation distances, and customer requirements must be considered before comparing the commercial competitiveness of individual offers.
The seasonal decline in demand is a major factor behind the November production adjustments. Road construction and asphalt paving activity generally slows in Kazakhstan as temperatures fall, particularly in northern and central regions where weather conditions increasingly restrict pavement work. Lower consumption during this period reduces the need for refiners to maintain the production volumes required during the peak construction season.
The situation also highlights the importance of coordinating bitumen procurement with seasonal production cycles. Kazakhstan's energy authorities have previously proposed shifting part of the road construction industry's bitumen purchasing activity to the winter and off-season months. The objective is to distribute demand more evenly throughout the year, reduce pressure on suppliers during peak periods, and improve the utilization of domestic production capacity. However, such an approach requires suitable storage arrangements and purchasing plans from contractors and infrastructure authorities.
The November production adjustment also coincides with changes to Kazakhstan's road bitumen specifications. From November 1, Caspi Bitum and the Pavlodar refinery discontinued production of BND 100/130 and moved toward grades selected according to regional climatic conditions. BND 70/100 is intended for northern and central regions, while BND 50/70 is designated for southern applications. Caspi Bitum has confirmed that it will continue producing BND 70/100 while introducing BND 50/70. These product changes are separate from the seasonal production reductions and should not be interpreted as evidence of an overall shortage.
Kazakhstan has also been considering changes to restrictions on bitumen exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union. Lower seasonal domestic demand could create opportunities for producers to explore external markets, particularly where surplus material becomes available. Nevertheless, a reduction in production plans does not establish that exportable volumes have increased, and any expansion of overseas sales would depend on applicable regulations, available supply, transport costs, and commercial demand.
For regional buyers and bitumen traders, the latest figures indicate that Kazakhstan is adjusting both production and pricing to weaker seasonal consumption. Lower EXW quotations may improve purchasing conditions for some domestic customers, but they cannot be directly equated with delivered prices in neighboring markets. Rail or road freight, loading arrangements, product grades, and applicable trade requirements remain important components of total procurement costs.
The market outlook for the remainder of November will depend on actual refinery output, the pace of seasonal demand reductions, and the purchasing behavior of road construction companies. The scheduled December maintenance at Caspi Bitum and changes in the country's product specifications may also influence subsequent supply arrangements. For now, the combination of lower planned production and declining factory prices indicates a market responding to reduced demand rather than clear evidence of a nationwide supply shortage.
By WPB
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