According to WPB, Asia's crude oil imports recovered sharply in October 2026, approaching levels recorded before the outbreak of the Iran war, while supplies of refined petroleum products remained under pressure. New tanker-tracking data from Kpler, published on November 2, show that crude imports reached 26.39 million barrels per day, close to the pre-war average of 27 million barrels per day. However, imports of light and middle distillates, including gasoline and diesel-related products, remained approximately 10% below their pre-conflict levels, highlighting an uneven recovery across the region's petroleum supply chain.
Asia's crude oil imports increased from 24.24 million barrels per day in September to 26.39 million barrels per day in October, a gain of 2.15 million barrels per day. The October figure was also 39% higher than the post-conflict low of 18.93 million barrels per day recorded in April. The pre-war comparison is based on the three months preceding the outbreak of the conflict on February 28, 2026.
The recovery reflects increased crude shipments from several supplying regions, including the Middle East, Russia, and the Americas. Nevertheless, the geographical structure of imports has changed considerably, and the return of overall volumes to near their previous levels does not mean that traditional shipping routes have fully recovered.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a particularly important example. Asia's crude imports passing through the strategic waterway rose to 7.42 million barrels per day in October, compared with just 1.59 million barrels per day in April. Despite this substantial increase, volumes remained approximately 43% below the pre-war average of 13.06 million barrels per day.
To compensate for restricted Gulf shipments, Asian refiners have increasingly relied on alternative crude suppliers. Imports from Russia reached 3.50 million barrels per day in October, compared with an average of 3.15 million barrels per day before the conflict. Shipments from the Americas totaled 4.16 million barrels per day, broadly matching the pre-war average. These alternative sources have helped stabilize overall crude availability, although transportation routes and supply costs may differ considerably from traditional Middle Eastern deliveries.
The situation in refined petroleum products remains more challenging. Asian imports of light and middle distillates reached 6.15 million barrels per day in October, up from 5.88 million barrels per day in September but still below the pre-war average of 6.85 million barrels per day. Although imports have improved from their June low of 5.27 million barrels per day, the recovery has been significantly slower than that of crude oil.
Reduced supplies from Middle Eastern refineries have contributed to the imbalance. Asian imports of light and middle distillates originating in the Middle East averaged 1.69 million barrels per day in October, compared with 2.07 million barrels per day before the conflict, representing a decline of 18.4%. This indicates that the recovery in crude export flows has not been matched by an equivalent restoration of refined fuel shipments.
Asia has partially compensated for the shortfall by purchasing more refined products from other regions. Imports of light and middle distillates from the Americas rose to 225,000 barrels per day in October, compared with a pre-war average of 173,000 barrels per day. Shipments from Africa increased to 294,000 barrels per day from 224,000 barrels per day. These additional supplies have supported market availability but have not fully eliminated the regional import deficit.
The continuing tightness is particularly visible in fuel prices. Singapore gasoil, an important regional benchmark for diesel-related products, closed at $168.62 per barrel on October 30. Although below the record of $199.89 reached on March 30, the price remained approximately 84% higher than the $91.42 recorded on February 27, immediately before the conflict.
Gasoline prices have followed a similar pattern. Singapore gasoline closed at $127.64 per barrel on October 30, compared with $79.30 on February 27, representing an increase of approximately 61%. The persistence of elevated prices, despite improving import volumes, indicates that supply conditions remain constrained, particularly in the diesel market.
Disruptions affecting Russian refinery operations have added further pressure to international refined product availability. Consequently, Asian buyers are facing supply challenges that extend beyond the Middle East and cannot be resolved simply through increased crude oil imports.
For Asian refineries, the improvement in crude availability is an important development because it can support feedstock procurement and potentially improve operating flexibility. However, higher crude imports do not automatically translate into equivalent growth in refined product output. Refinery utilization, crude quality, processing configuration, maintenance schedules, and the profitability of individual products all influence the composition and volume of refinery production.
The distinction is particularly relevant to the bitumen industry. Bitumen is primarily produced from heavy refinery residues, and its availability depends not only on overall crude supply but also on the characteristics of the crude processed and refinery operating decisions. A refinery receiving more crude oil may increase fuel production without necessarily increasing its bitumen output.
High prices for gasoil and other transportation fuels may also influence the wider asphalt supply chain. Elevated fuel costs can increase expenses for marine transportation, road freight, construction machinery, and asphalt production operations. These pressures could affect delivered bitumen costs and the economics of road construction projects, even where physical bitumen supplies remain available.
At the same time, the latest Kpler figures do not establish a shortage or recovery in Asia's bitumen market. The reported import volumes cover crude oil and selected refined fuels rather than petroleum bitumen itself. Assessing the impact on bitumen supply would require separate information on refinery bitumen production, feedstock quality, inventories, export availability, and regional price assessments.
Looking ahead, the direction of Asia's petroleum markets will depend on the continued restoration of shipping flows, refining operations, and access to alternative suppliers. Further improvements in crude imports may support refinery activity, but the persistence of high fuel prices shows that the recovery of the broader petroleum supply chain remains incomplete.
The October figures reveal an important divergence in Asian energy markets: crude oil trade has recovered close to its pre-war level, while refined fuel imports and prices continue to reflect substantial supply constraints. For the bitumen and asphalt industries, the development reinforces the need to monitor refinery output, feedstock composition, and transportation costs separately rather than treating higher crude imports as direct evidence of improving bitumen availability.
By WPB
Asia Crude Oil Imports, Refined Fuel Shortage, Kpler, Strait of Hormuz, Asian Oil Market, Singapore Gasoil, Diesel Prices, Petroleum Refining, Middle East Oil Exports, Asian Refineries, Bitumen Supply, Refinery Feedstocks, Petroleum Products, Marine Freight, Asphalt Production Costs, Energy Supply Chain
