According to WPB, crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels from September 20 through the latest tracking update on September 25, while crude flows on September 23 rose to their highest daily level since early July. The figures provide fresh evidence that physical oil movements have recovered significantly from the weakest periods of disruption, even though overall commercial shipping remains far below normal conditions.
Preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data show that the 33.7 million barrels moved through the strait aboard 19 crude tankers. Seventeen of those vessels were very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, capable of carrying around 2 million barrels each.
Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share of the cargoes, followed by Iraq. The growing Saudi presence reflects the major shift in export routing that followed disruption to the East–West Pipeline and restrictions on crude movements through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Between September 13 and 19, approximately 49.2 million barrels of crude were exported through Hormuz. The 33.7 million-barrel figure should not be compared directly with that total because it covers only part of the period beginning September 20; preliminary tracking indicates that the current export pace remains broadly in line with the previous seven-day period.
A stronger indication of available oil-moving capacity appeared on September 23. A U.S. official said around 60 commercial vessels of different types transited Hormuz during that date, while crude oil movements reached their highest daily level since early July.
The official also estimated that approximately 22 million barrels of oil exited the waterway during September 23. That figure has not been independently verified and should be treated separately from the Kpler data covering tanker movements and weekly crude volumes.
The distinction is important because the two sets of numbers measure different things. The roughly 60-vessel count came from a U.S. official and included multiple categories of commercial shipping, while the 33.7 million barrels and 19 crude tankers are based on preliminary vessel-tracking data.
The improvement has also been uneven. On September 24, tracked commodity-vessel transits fell to nine from 14 on September 23, with eight of the nine vessels moving out of the Gulf.
That total remained only around half of the recent 10-day average of approximately 18 commodity-vessel transits. The sharp change between September 23 and 24 shows why one day of unusually strong crude flows cannot yet be treated as evidence that overall shipping conditions have normalized.
Ship-tracking data also carry an important limitation. Some vessels continue to move through the area with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off, meaning they are not captured in conventional tracking counts.
Before the regional conflict disrupted maritime traffic, roughly 125 large commercial vessels typically crossed Hormuz each day. That figure included crude and product tankers, LNG carriers, dry bulk vessels and container ships, making the current tracked traffic level still substantially lower than the pre-crisis baseline.
The apparent gap between crude volumes and vessel numbers can partly be explained by the size of the ships currently carrying oil. A fully loaded VLCC can transport around 2 million barrels, allowing a relatively small number of vessels to move very large crude volumes even when total maritime traffic remains depressed.
Saudi Arabia is now one of the main drivers of this pattern. Its crude exports through Hormuz have risen sharply during September after the disruption to the East–West Pipeline reduced the kingdom’s ability to move oil toward Yanbu.
The increase has pushed more Saudi crude back toward Gulf terminals and created additional demand for VLCCs operating inside and around the strait. As a result, higher physical oil flows have not necessarily translated into greater tanker availability.
That pressure has become especially visible in the Gulf of Oman. Ship-to-ship transfer operations handling Middle Eastern crude from inside Hormuz have reached practical capacity limits as Saudi volumes have been added to shipments from Iraq, the UAE and other regional producers.
Under this structure, regional shuttle tankers carry crude through Hormuz and transfer it to long-haul vessels waiting outside the Gulf. This reduces the need for every international tanker to enter the strait, but it also requires additional vessels, transfer equipment, tugboats and offshore coordination.
The rapid increase in Saudi Gulf exports has therefore added another layer of demand to an already constrained tanker market. More crude can leave the region, but doing so requires a larger number of vessel movements and more complicated logistics.
This has tightened rather than immediately improved vessel availability. Freight rates for VLCC voyages from the Middle East toward Asia remain exceptionally high, while waiting times for offshore transfer operations around Oman have lengthened.
In some cases, transfer operations that previously required around five to seven days can now take closer to 10 days. The pressure has become strong enough for some market participants to consider alternative transfer locations farther east, including areas near India and Malaysia.
The latest data therefore reveal two different trends operating at the same time. Crude oil volumes through Hormuz are recovering, but the shipping system supporting those flows remains constrained and expensive.
That distinction is particularly important for the bitumen market. More crude moving aboard VLCCs does not mean that specialized bitumen-vessel availability has improved at the same rate.
Bulk bitumen operates through a much smaller and more specialized shipping network. Cargoes require heated tanks, dedicated loading infrastructure and vessels designed to maintain the product at the required temperature throughout the voyage.
For that reason, an increase in crude tanker traffic cannot be translated directly into higher bitumen-export capacity.
The indirect effect can still be important. More reliable crude movements through Hormuz can strengthen refinery feedstock security and make operating schedules more predictable, particularly for plants that depend heavily on Gulf crude supply.
More stable crude availability can also reduce uncertainty surrounding the production of heavy petroleum products. However, the benefit on the refinery side may be offset by persistent pressure in the shipping market.
Congested offshore transfers, elevated war-risk insurance and limited vessel availability can keep transportation costs high even when more crude is physically reaching refineries. Higher oil flows can therefore improve feedstock security without delivering an immediate reduction in freight.
For bitumen exporters, that creates a mixed operating environment. A refinery may have better access to crude and greater confidence in production planning, while the cost of arranging a specialized bitumen vessel can remain elevated.
There is still no direct evidence that the September increase in Hormuz crude movements has materially improved the availability of dedicated bitumen vessels or produced a sustained reduction in bitumen freight.
The September 25 figures instead show how the regional oil system has adapted to constrained maritime capacity. Fully loaded VLCCs, regional shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers are allowing larger crude volumes to move through a network that remains well below normal in terms of total vessel traffic.
Whether that improvement becomes sustainable will depend on developments beyond crude volume alone. Tanker traffic would need to rise more consistently, offshore congestion would need to ease and vessel availability would need to improve before the market could describe the broader logistics environment as normalized.
For now, the clearest conclusion is that crude flows through Hormuz have recovered materially from their weakest levels and reached their highest daily volume since early July on September 23. The shipping network carrying those barrels, however, remains stretched, expensive and heavily dependent on extraordinary logistics arrangements.
By WPB
Strait of Hormuz, Crude Oil Exports, Kpler, VLCC, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Gulf Shipping, Tanker Traffic, Gulf of Oman, Ship-to-Ship Transfer, Crude Logistics, Tanker Freight, Refinery Feedstock, Bitumen, Asphalt, Bitumen Shipping
