According to WPB, Azerbaijan produced 126,400 metric tons of petroleum bitumen during the first nine months of 2026, down 33.8% from the same period last year, while finished bitumen inventories stood at 13,600 tons at the beginning of October. The latest data show that the country’s bitumen output remains severely depressed year on year, although the scale of the decline has moderated compared with the 42.2% contraction recorded through July.
The January-September result means Azerbaijan produced only 66.2% of the bitumen volume recorded during the corresponding nine months of 2025. Bitumen remained one of the weakest-performing products in the country’s refining statistics, even as output of several other heavy petroleum products increased.
The latest figures nevertheless show some improvement compared with the position reported two months earlier. Production during January-July had reached only 81,700 tons, down 42.2% year on year. By the end of September, cumulative production had increased to 126,400 tons and the year-on-year decline had narrowed to 33.8%.
This does not mean bitumen production has returned to normal. It does show that output during August and September was stronger relative to the severe weakness seen earlier in the year.
The difference between the two cumulative figures indicates that Azerbaijan produced approximately 44,700 tons of bitumen during August and September combined. Based on the corresponding year-earlier cumulative statistics, output during those same two months of 2025 was roughly 49,600 tons.
That implies the August-September shortfall was around 10% year on year, substantially smaller than the 42.2% decline recorded during the first seven months. The calculation suggests that the production gap has begun to narrow, although two months of stronger relative performance are not sufficient to confirm a sustained recovery.
Inventory data add another important dimension. Finished petroleum bitumen stocks held by industrial enterprises stood at approximately 13,600 tons on October 1.
That compares with 14,700 tons reported at the beginning of August, indicating that the stock buffer declined by approximately 1,100 tons, or around 7.5%, over the intervening period.
The reduction is relatively modest in absolute terms, but it matters because production remains well below last year. Inventories can help smooth temporary differences between refinery output, domestic consumption and exports, but they cannot replace production indefinitely if demand remains firm.
The current stock level is roughly equivalent to one month of Azerbaijan’s average January-September 2026 production. That comparison is illustrative rather than a measure of actual supply coverage because production and domestic demand vary significantly from month to month.
The more unusual feature of Azerbaijan’s bitumen balance remains the contrast between production and exports. While output has fallen sharply, customs data show that petroleum bitumen exports have continued to expand.
Azerbaijan exported approximately 12,310 tons of petroleum bitumen during January-August 2026, up 2.9 times from the same period last year. Export revenue reached approximately $3.74 million, increasing about 3.3 times year on year.
The export volume remains modest compared with national production. January-August exports accounted for less than 10% of the 126,400 tons produced through September, so the country should not be described as diverting most of its bitumen output toward foreign markets.
The direction of the two indicators is nevertheless commercially significant. Azerbaijan is producing substantially less bitumen than in 2025 while simultaneously exporting more material than a year earlier.
Several mechanisms could explain this pattern without contradiction. Exports may be supported by existing inventories, domestic demand may have weakened, the timing of production and export shipments may differ, or suppliers may be allocating a larger share of available material to foreign customers.
The published statistics do not provide enough detail to determine which of those explanations is dominant. Domestic bitumen consumption, monthly stock withdrawals and export shipments would need to be aligned more precisely before the market balance could be reconstructed.
This distinction is especially important because Azerbaijan has substantial installed bitumen-production capacity. The bitumen unit at the Heydar Aliyev Oil Refinery was designed for approximately 400,000 tons of annual production and was developed primarily to supply domestic road demand.
The plant produces road bitumen in the PEN 40/60 range. Its design capacity is therefore far above the 126,400 tons actually produced during the first nine months of 2026.
However, design capacity should not be confused with expected or sustainable output. Refinery maintenance, operating rates, crude slate, residue allocation and economics across other heavy products can all cause actual bitumen production to differ substantially from nameplate capacity.
There is currently no evidence showing that the 33.8% decline represents a permanent loss of Azerbaijan’s bitumen-production capacity. The statistics confirm lower output but do not identify a structural shutdown of the bitumen unit.
This distinction matters for the market outlook. If lower production reflects temporary refinery operations or feedstock allocation, output could recover relatively quickly. If the decline reflects a longer-term shift in refinery economics, actual bitumen availability may remain below installed capacity for a longer period.
Other refining data make the situation more interesting. Total production of petroleum coke, petroleum bitumen and other petroleum-product residues reached approximately 625,000 tons in January-September and increased 7.5% year on year.
Petroleum coke production alone increased 10.4% to 188,200 tons. Bitumen, by contrast, fell 33.8%.
The divergence shows that the decline is not simply the result of a broad contraction across all heavy refinery products. Different products are moving in different directions within the same refining system.
However, those statistics alone do not prove that heavy feedstock has deliberately been diverted away from bitumen and into petroleum coke, fuel oil or another product. Establishing such a shift would require refinery-level operating and residue-flow data that have not been published.
For regional buyers, the latest figures provide a more balanced signal than the July data. Azerbaijan’s bitumen output remains one-third below last year, but production during August and September appears to have performed considerably better than during the first seven months.
At the same time, warehouse stocks have declined only moderately and exports have continued to rise. The combination suggests that Azerbaijan still has material moving through both domestic and external channels despite the substantial year-on-year production decline.
The question is whether this balance can be maintained through the remainder of 2026. If production continues recovering while road demand weakens seasonally, Azerbaijan could preserve or even expand its ability to serve regional export markets.
If production weakens again while inventories continue to decline and exports remain elevated, the supply balance could become significantly tighter.
Seasonality may provide some relief. Road-construction demand normally slows as colder weather approaches across the South Caucasus, reducing the amount of bitumen required for paving during the winter period.
That decline in domestic consumption could allow inventories to stabilize even if production remains below 2025 levels. It could also make more material available for regional customers if suppliers choose to maintain export activity.
Azerbaijan’s geographical position gives it potential relevance to neighbouring markets in the Caucasus and surrounding regions, where relatively short overland routes can provide a commercial advantage compared with more distant supply origins.
However, the country’s current export volumes remain small compared with major global bitumen exporters. The significance of the latest numbers lies primarily in the changing domestic balance rather than in Azerbaijan becoming a major international supplier.
The October statistics also update the paradox identified earlier in the year. In July, the market faced a 42.2% production decline combined with rapidly rising exports. By September, the same basic divergence remained, but the production decline had narrowed to 33.8%.
That moderation makes the next two months particularly important. October and November data will show whether Azerbaijan is moving toward a genuine production recovery or whether the improvement in August and September was temporary.
Warehouse inventories will be equally important. Stocks falling materially below the current 13,600-ton level while output remains weak would suggest that the buffer supporting domestic consumption and export activity is being eroded.
Conversely, stabilization or rebuilding of inventories would indicate that production is catching up with current demand and trade requirements.
Export statistics should also be monitored alongside production rather than separately. Continued export growth would be much easier to sustain if output continues recovering. Rising exports combined with another deterioration in production would place greater pressure on stocks or domestic availability.
For the regional bitumen market, the latest figures therefore do not indicate that Azerbaijani supply is disappearing. The country still has substantial installed capacity, finished inventories and an active export stream.
They do show, however, that actual production remains significantly below last year and far below the refinery’s nominal annual bitumen capacity.
The most important message from the nine-month data is consequently one of partial improvement within an still-constrained production environment. Azerbaijan has reduced the scale of its year-on-year decline since July, but it has not eliminated it.
The next market signal will come from whether that narrowing continues. A further improvement in production accompanied by stable inventories would support a more constructive supply outlook, while renewed weakness combined with stock drawdowns would return attention to the sustainability of Azerbaijan’s growing export activity.
By WPB
Azerbaijan bitumen, Azerbaijan bitumen production, petroleum bitumen, bitumen output, bitumen stocks, Azerbaijan refinery, Heydar Aliyev Refinery, PEN 40/60, Azerbaijan bitumen exports, South Caucasus bitumen, bitumen inventories, bitumen supply, refinery production, regional bitumen market, bitumen exports, road bitumen Azerbaijan, SOCAR bitumen, Azerbaijan petroleum products
