Recent Impacts of the UN General Assembly in the United States: Volatility in the Bitumen, Petroleum Products, and Oil Markets

The current UN General Assembly, which is scheduled to continue until September 29 in the United States, has attracted significant international interest—particularly on the energy front—for diplomatic talks, the World of Petroleum and Bitumen reports. Iran's fiscal budget remains based predominantly on exports of crude oil and petroleum products, where bitumen exports are strategically important to Asian construction companies. Market participants—policymakers to traders—closely watched the happenings at the Assembly for any indication of upcoming easing of sanctions, new talks, or policy adjustments that could affect the global supply-demand equation. So far, the outcome has been more of a psychological nature, influencing sentiment and short-term volatility instead of directly modifying trade flows. However, with the session still ongoing, markets remain alert to what the coming days may bring.

Bitumen Market Response

The export bitumen market is especially sensitive to political sanctions, as Iran plays an important role in supplying South and Southeast Asian markets. Ongoing tenders from Bandar Abbas are still in the range of USD 340–345 per ton (FOB) on the heels of strong foreign infrastructure demand and Iranian port congestions. While the UN General Assembly in New York has yet to see any sanctions relief, speculation on Iran's possible return to more active engagement with international markets has grown.

For now, Indian and Chinese buyers still have to fall back on informal channels or discounted bargains in order to obtain Iranian cargoes. If diplomatic progress is made, increased trade transparency may widen supply and lower prices. At the same time, political durability will likely keep existing supply constraints in effect. Operationally, this diplomatic visit has been more of a harbinger of possible follow-through and less of an immediate price driver, placing the industry in a watchful holding pattern.

Oil Price Developments

The Brent crude market responded more aggressively. Brent futures rose 2.5% to close around USD 69.30 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate by 2.1%. These were less reflective of actual supply movements and more a reflection of geopolitical uncertainty. Iranian production stands at around 3.2 million barrels per day, with some 1.5 million barrels exported under sanctions.

The risk of sanctions relief continues to be the dominant factor. More Iranian supply into the international market would in theory grant Asian refiners access to inexpensive heavy crude and pressure global benchmarks lower. However, without tangible policy changes, prices are expected by analysts to continue to be affected by regional politics and OPEC+ production policy. Meanwhile, the president's diplomatic efforts have only generated volatility without affecting market fundamentals.

Dynamics of Refined Petroleum Products

Refined products flows—gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—traded together with crude oil in parallel. U.S. gasoline futures rose about 0.64%, with heating oil and diesel following a similar trend. European and Asian refining margins (crack spreads) were largely unchanged, varying from consumption trends and regional imbalances to diplomatic shifts.

Analysts note that only a sharp increase in sanctioned Iranian crude exports would provide refiners, particularly in Asia, with greater feedstock diversification and lower production costs for middle distillates. Sanctions affect refined products now mainly indirectly and partially.

Diplomatic Atmosphere and Investor Sentiment

Iran's president at the UN emphasized that the country is not after nuclear weapons, attempting to project a moderate image. Nevertheless, the supreme leader's refusal to negotiate directly with Washington underscored the narrow space for diplomatic flexibility. Without sanctions removal or a signed deal, Iran's energy trade continues to do business in a half-covert environment, and the bulk of its purchasers are China.

Financial markets also proceeded with caution. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 lost about 0.28%, and U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged—their testimony to investor hesitation rather than fear. The dollar index also weakened. While energy traders soaked up geopolitical risk, equity and bond investors were happy to wait on the sidelines, reflecting skepticism about abrupt policy change.

Conclusion

Overall, the recent United States General Assembly has contributed so far with greater psychological and symbolic effects compared to the structural changes in energy markets. Bitumen prices remained higher due to high demand and logistical issues, while crude benchmarks increased on geopolitical tensions rather than supply fundamentals. Refined products largely followed crude but were subject to greater seasonal and regional factors compared to diplomacy.

Unless meaningful progress is achieved on sanctions relief or negotiations, current scenarios in the bitumen, petroleum products, and crude oil markets are expected to persist. In the short term, the effect of this diplomatic mission has been primarily to create an atmosphere of uncertainty and marginal price volatility. With the Assembly set to continue until September 29, global markets are now in a “wait-and-see” mode, watching closely for potential developments in the days ahead.

By Bitumenmag

Bitumen, Price, Market